東協加中國合作的挑戰與前景

梁文興

摘要

    自1994年中國首次參加東協區域論壇（ASEAN Regional Forum, ARF）後，就主動積極地與東南亞國協（ASEAN，以下簡稱東協）組織合作。

    即使雙方合作的項目有不少，但不見得都能順利進展，主要原因是東協成員對中國崛起的觀感不一，有的認為是威脅，也有認為是機運；其次是南海各方行為宣言仍無法實際解決現存主權爭端的困境，致雙方至今小動作仍不斷；再者中國與東協成立自由貿易區的理想太過於樂觀，雙方經濟結構差距過大、及產品互補性不夠，有的國家甚至憂心這是另外一種「經濟威脅論」。

東協大致是採「政、經分離」原則，在經濟上主要與中國合作為主，希望從中國的高經濟成長率得到經驗與利益。但其它政治、安全議題則是與多國（美、中、日等國）合作，因此短期內中國要涉入東協的核心安全事務較為困難。但我國要注意的是中國與東協在經濟整合之後的影響，台灣一旦被排除在自由貿易區之外，將面臨經濟被邊緣化的困境，政府必須要及早因應。

Abstract

Since first attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF) in 1994, China has been actively searching for opportunities to collaborate with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (hereinafter referred to as “ASEAN”). To date, what China has participated or signed is the ARF, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, the Action Plan for Implementing the Joint Declaration of Strategic Partnership, the plan to establish the Free Trade Area (FTA), and so on.

Even though there are some cooperative items for both sides, it’s not necessarily that the situation would proceed smoothly. The main reason is that the member countries have different views toward the rise of China. Some regard it as a threat, while some regard it as an opportunity. Secondly, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea still can’t practically solve the present predicaments of sovereignty disputes; and that makes both sides keep maneuvering up to now. Moreover, the ideal that China and ASEAN establish the Free Trade Area is too sanguine. The difference between both economic structures is way too big, and the complementary feature of products is not enough; thus some countries even worry that this is another kind of “Economic threat theory”.

ASEAN largely adopts the principle of “separation between politics and economics”. Economically speaking, it mainly collaborates with China, hoping to receive experiences and benefits from China’s high economic growth rate. However, when it comes to other political and security issues, it cooperates with multi-countries (USA, China, Japanese and so forth). Hence, it would be more difficult for China to get involved in the core security issues of ASEAN in the short time. Nevertheless, what we have to keep an eye on is the influence occurred after the integration between China and ASEAN. Once excluded from the Free Trade Area, Taiwan will face the predicament that its economy might be edged. The government has to deal with it in advance.