從CEPA到區域政治經濟戰略－中國區域整合戰略與美國東亞戰略佈局之矛盾 

朱奕嵐 

摘            要

    「內地與香港關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排」(CEPA)是中國中央「經濟挺港」的核心安排，透過給予特定商品免關稅以及降低特定服務業進入中國大陸從事服務之條件的優惠，提高香港製造業與服務業的競爭優勢，吸引外資前往香港投資製造業與服務業，為香港經濟增加資金與投資吸引力。此外，CEPA進一步又代表著中國對於泛珠三角洲的開發規劃，以及與東協加三連結的企圖。因此，從國家政治經濟戰略層次來看，CEPA是經濟性與政治性、國內性與國際性兼具的政治經濟安排的重要起步。

如果CEPA只是國內的經濟安排，只要不違反世貿規定，美國並沒有理由也沒有藉口反對。然CEPA既然也屬中國為推展區域經濟整合的一項政治經濟安排，為了維持其霸權地位，美國必然不會漠視。不過面對中國符合當前國際經濟規範且透過國際經濟政治建制推展之政治經濟戰略，美國可謂陷入兩難。如對中國進行正面強硬壓制甚或是軍事打擊，將破壞區域經濟與政治的穩定，使美國及其盟邦未蒙其利反先受其害。中國社會與經濟的穩定發展以及政治的自由化，似乎是美國能期待的最佳結局。不過，如此轉變需要時間，也必須中國經濟政治社會維持相當程度的穩定，也還必須是中國出現強有力領導人，更重要的是中國內部民意與各利益團體支持此一轉變，才有可能。

 關鍵字

     香港與內地關於建立更緊密經貿關係的安排

     東協加三 

     美中關係

Abstract

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement between China and Hong Kong, i.e., CEPA, is a core arrangement made by Beijing for “economically supporting Hong Kong.” By exempting certain HK products from import tariff and lowering entry limitations for certain HK services, Beijing hopes to attract more FDI for the city. Moreover, CEPA represents Beijing’s design for the future development of the Pan-Pearl River Delta as well as the plan to connect it with the ASEAN Plus Three. Therefore, from the perspective of national political economic strategy, CEPA is an important kick-off with economic as well as political natures, internal as well as external natures.

If CEPA is purely an internal economic arrangement without violating WTO regulations, US have no reason or justification to object. As CEPA is also a political economic arrangement for regional integration, US, in order to maintain its hegemonic status, will not dare to ignore. But in facing China’s political economic strategy complying and through with the current international economic regimes, US is caught in a dilemma. If US directly confronts China, the regional economic as well as political stability will be devastated even China may lose. But US and its allies will be also suffered. The best scenario US can expect is the stable development of China’s economic as well as society and political liberalization. But China needs time to make such changes, while the society must maintain certain degree of stability, with a strong leadership, and most importantly have the support from its people and interest groups.