產業西進對台灣IC產業生產力
及財務績效之影響

林灼榮、徐啟升、陳怡錚

摘     要

   本文首先依Malmquist生產力變動指數，推估台灣IC產業在1996~2002間，20家廠商總因素生產力（TFP）及其組成因子（效率、純技術效率、規模效率及技術效率）之變動走向；其次，檢定西進與否對台灣IC產業生產力及六大財務績效指標（獲利能力、淨值週轉率、營業收入淨額、流動比率、總資產成長率、信用評等）是否存在顯著差異；最後，建構七條聯立迴歸模型，以ISUR方法，評估台灣經濟成長率（EGT）、大陸經濟成長率（EGC）、核准至大陸投資之半導體投資總額（I）、半導體產業對大陸的出口額（B）、廠商有無西進大陸投資（D）等五個外生變數，對生產力及六大財務績效指標之影響。實證結果顯示：綜觀本文實證內涵，顯示台灣IC產業生產力高低，主要受制於外在環境變遷（如1998年之金融風暴、2001年景氣蕭條、兩岸之經濟成長率）。而整體半導體產業對大陸之經貿深化及個別廠商西進與否，短期間對財務績效呈現不利或不顯著影響，此可能肇因於西進廠商在沉沒成本（Sunk Cost）無法短期回收下，必須先行承擔獲利能力、總資產成長率及信用評等不佳之代價。

關鍵詞 產業西進 IC產業 Malmquist生產力 　財務績效

Abstract

　　This study applies the Malmquist Index to estimate the total factor productivities (TFPs) of the 20 firms in the Taiwan Integrated Circuit (IC) industry between 1996 and 2002. The TFP is further decomposed into pure technical efficiency, scale efficiency, and technical efficiency and then their changes are analyzed. This study then tests if there exist significant differences in productivities and financial performances (measured by return on equity, equity turnover, net sales, current ratio, growth rate of total assets, and credit rating) between sample firms that invested in China and those that did not invest in China. Last, Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression is employed to examine the impacts of the economic growth rate of Taiwan, economic growth rate of China, total amount approved by Taiwan government for semiconductor industry investments in China, value of semiconductor products exported to China, and status of investment in China on the TFP and six financial performance indices. The results show that the productivity level of the Taiwan IC industry is mainly affected by the changes of the external economic environment (such as the economic growth rates of Taiwan and China). The financial performances of the sample firms reveal that investments in China have negative impacts on profitability, growth rate of total assets, and credit rating. These results may be due to the reason that firms invested in China incurred a large amount of sunk costs and failed to recover it in the short run. 

Keywords: Financial Performance, IC Industry, Malmquist Index